Spatial distribution of block falls using volumetric GIS–decision-tree models     

C. Abdallah 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

Block falls are considered a significant aspect of surficial instability contributing to losses in land and socio-economic aspects through their damaging effects to natural and human environments. This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution and volumes of block falls in central Lebanon using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned trees). Eleven terrain parameters (lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, soil type, distance to drainage line, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, land cover/use, and proximity to roads) were generated to statistically explain the occurrence of block falls. The latter were discriminated using SPOT4 satellite imageries, and their dimensions were determined during field surveys. The un-pruned tree model based on all considered parameters explained 86% of the variability in field block fall measurements. Once pruned, it classifies 50% in block falls’ volumes by selecting just four parameters (lithology, slope gradient, soil type, and land cover/use). Both tree models (un-pruned and pruned) were converted to quantitative 1:50,000 block falls’ maps with different classes; starting from Nil (no block falls) to more than 4000 m³. These maps are fairly matching with coincidence value equal to 45%; however, both can be used to prioritize the choice of specific zones for further measurement and modeling, as well as for land-use management. The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may also be applied to other areas (i.e. the choice of un-pruned or pruned model is related to the availability of terrain parameters in a given area).  相似文献   

Groundwater dating with 3H and SF6 in relation to mixing patterns,transport modelling and hydrochemistry     

A. Zuber  S. Witczak  K. Ra&#x;ski  I. liwka  M. Opoka  P. Mochalski  T. Kuc  J. Karlikowska  J. Kania  M. Jackowicz‐Korczy&#x;ski  M. Duli&#x;ski 《水文研究》2005,19(11):2247-2275

A comprehensive study of a sandy aquifer of deltaic origin in southern Poland included water chemistry, isotopes, dissolved trace gases and transport modelling. Tritium, sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and freons (F‐11, F‐12 and F‐113) showed the presence of modern waters in the recharge areas and shallow confined parts of the aquifer. The presence of older Holocene waters farther from the recharge areas was indicated by lack of ³H, SF₆ contents ≤0·02 fmol l⁻¹ and relatively low ¹⁴C values. The discharge from the system is by upward seepage in the valley of a major river. Pre‐Holocene waters of a cooler climate, identified on the basis of δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ¹⁴C, Ne and Ar data, were found in some distant wells. Concentrations of N₂, Ne and Ar determined by gas chromatography were used for calculating the noble gas temperatures, air excess needed for correction of SF₆, and nitrogen content released by denitrification process. The time series of ³H content available for some wells supplied quantitative information on age distributions and the total mean ages of flow through the unsaturated and saturated zones. The derived ³H age distributions turned out to be very wide, with mean values in the range of about 30 to 160 years. For each well with determined ³H age, the SF₆ data showed either a lower age range or the possibility of a lower age as expected due to shorter travel times of SF₆ through the unsaturated zone, which most probably also resulted in different types of age distributions of these tracers. Freons appeared to be of little use for individual age determinations. A quantitative estimation of two‐component mixing from SF₆ ³H relations is not possible unless the travel time of ³H through the unsaturated zone is comparable to that of SF₆. The ratio of integrals of the response function over the age range with tracer and the whole response function yields the ratio of water with tracer to total flow of water. That ratio is a tracer‐dependent function of time. Transport modelling of SF₆ tracer done with MT3D code yielded initially large discrepancies between calculated and measured tracer concentrations. Some discrepancies remained even after calibration of the transport model with SF₆. Simulation of tritium contents with a calibrated transport model yielded reasonable agreement with measured contents in some wells and indicated a need for further investigations, particularly in the eastern part of the aquifer. The existence of distinct hydrochemical zones is consistent with the tracer data; young waters with measurable ³H and SF₆ contents are aerobic and of HCO₃ Ca or HCO₃ SO₄ Ca types. Slightly elevated Na and Cl contents, as well as the highest concentrations of SO₄ and NO₃ within this zone are due to anthropogenic influences. Anaerobic conditions prevail in the far field, under the confining cover, where pre‐bomb era Holocene waters dominate. In that zone, dissolved oxygen, NO₃ and U contents are reduced, and Fe, Mn and NH₄ contents increase. In the third zone, early Holocene and glacial waters occur. They are of HCO₃ Ca Na or HCO₃ Na types, with TDS values higher than 1 g l⁻¹ and Na content higher than 200 mg l⁻¹, due to either small admixtures of ascending or diffusing older water or freshening of marine sediments, a process that is probably occurring till the present time. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Crustal structure of the Ordovician Macquarie Arc,Eastern Lachlan Orogen,based on seismic‐reflection profiling     

R. A. Glen  R. J. Korsch  N. G. Direen  L. E. A. Jones  D. W. Johnstone  K. C. Lawrie 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(2):323-348

In the Eastern Lachlan Orogen, the mineralised Molong and Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belts are two structural belts that once formed part of the Ordovician Macquarie Arc, but are now separated by younger Silurian‐Devonian strata as well as by Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites. Interpretation of deep seismic reflection and refraction data across and along these belts provides answers to some of the key questions in understanding the evolution of the Eastern Lachlan Orogen—the relationship between coeval Ordovician volcanics and quartz‐rich turbidites, and the relationship between separate belts of Ordovician volcanics and the intervening strata. In particular, the data provide evidence for major thrust juxtaposition of the arc rocks and Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites, with Wagga Belt rocks thrust eastward over the arc rocks of the Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belt, and the Adaminaby Group thrust north over arc rocks in the southern part of the Molong Volcanic Belt. The seismic data also provide evidence for regional contraction, especially for crustal‐scale deformation in the western part of the Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belt. The data further suggest that this belt and the Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites to the east (Kirribilli Formation) were together thrust over ?Cambrian‐Ordovician rocks of the Jindalee Group and associated rocks along west‐dipping inferred faults that belong to a set that characterises the middle crust of the Eastern Lachlan Orogen. The Macquarie Arc was subsequently rifted apart in the Silurian‐Devonian, with Ordovician volcanics preserved under the younger troughs and shelves (e.g. Hill End Trough). The Molong Volcanic Belt, in particular, was reworked by major down‐to‐the‐east normal faults that were thrust‐reactivated with younger‐on‐older geometries in the late Early ‐ Middle Devonian and again in the Carboniferous.  相似文献   

Meso‐scale particle modeling of concrete deterioration caused by alkali‐aggregate reaction     

Jianwen Pan  Y. T. Feng  Feng Jin  Yanjie Xu  Qicheng Sun  Chuhan Zhang  D. R. J. Owen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(16):2690-2705

A meso‐scale particle model is presented to simulate the expansion of concrete subjected to alkali‐aggregate reaction (AAR) and to analyze the AAR‐induced degradation of the mechanical properties. It is the first attempt to evaluate the deterioration mechanism due to AAR using the discrete‐element method. A three‐phase meso‐scale model for concrete composed of aggregates, mortar and the interface is established with the combination of a pre‐processing approach and the particle flow code, PFC2D. A homogeneous aggregate expansion approach is applied to model the AAR expansion. Uniaxial compression tests are conducted for the AAR‐affected concrete to examine the effects on the mechanical properties. Two specimens with different aggregate sizes are analyzed to consider the effects of aggregate size on AAR. The results show that the meso‐scale particle model is valid to predict the expansion and the internal micro‐cracking patterns caused by AAR. The two different specimens exhibit similar behavior. The Young's modulus and compressive strength are significantly reduced with the increase of AAR expansion. The shape of the stress–strain curves obtained from the compression tests clearly reflects the influence of internal micro‐cracks: an increased nonlinearity before the peak loading and a more gradual softening for more severely affected specimens. Similar macroscopic failure patterns of the specimens under compression are observed in terms of diagonal macroscopic cracks splitting the specimen into several triangular pieces, whereas localized micro‐cracks forming in slightly affected specimens are different from branching and diffusing cracks in severely affected ones, demonstrating different failure mechanisms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Parallel finite element algorithm with domain decomposition for three-dimensional magnetotelluric modelling     

Fabio I. Zyserman  Juan E. Santos   《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2000,44(4):351

We present a new finite element (FE) method for magnetotelluric modelling of three-dimensional conductivity structures. Maxwell's equations are treated as a system of first-order partial differential equations for the secondary fields. Absorbing boundary conditions are introduced, minimizing undesired boundary effects and allowing the use of small computational domains. The numerical algorithm presented here is an iterative, domain decomposition procedure employing a nonconforming FE space. It does not use global matrices, therefore allowing the modellization of large and complicated structures. The algorithm is naturally parallellizable, and we show results obtained in the IBM SP2 parallel supercomputer at Purdue University. The accuracy of the numerical method is verified by checking the computed solutions with the results of COMMEMI, the international project on the comparison of modelling methods for electromagnetic induction.  相似文献   

Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub‐humid Ethiopian highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Seifu A. Tilahun  Christian D. Guzman  Assefa D. Zegeye  Dessalegn C. Dagnew  Amy S. Collick  Birru Yitaferu  Tammo S. Steenhuis 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1817-1828

Experimental research in the Ethiopian highlands found that saturation excess induced runoff and erosion are common in the sub‐humid conditions. Because most erosion simulation models applied in the highlands are based on infiltration excess, we, as an alternative, developed the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model, which can simulate water and sediment fluxes in landscapes with saturation excess runoff. The PED model has previously only been tested at the outlet of a watershed and not for distributed runoff and sediment concentration within the watershed. In this study, we compare the distributed storm runoff and sediment concentration of the PED model against collected data in the 95‐ha Debre Mawi watershed and three of its nested sub‐watersheds for the 2010 and 2011 rainy seasons. In the PED model framework, the hydrology of the watershed is divided between infiltrating and runoff zones, with erosion only taking place from two surface runoff zones. Daily storm runoff and sediment concentration values, ranging from 0.5 to over 30 mm and from 0.1 to 35 g l^?1, respectively, were well simulated. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for the daily storm runoff for outlet and sub‐watersheds ranged from 0.66 to 0.82, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for daily sediment concentrations were greater than 0.78. Furthermore, the model uses realistic fractional areas for surface and subsurface flow contributions, for example between saturated areas (15%), degraded areas (30%) and permeable areas (55%) at the main outlet, while close similarity was found for the remaining hydrology and erosion parameter values. One exception occurred for the distinctly greater transport limited parameter at the actively gullying lower part of the watershed. The results suggest that the model based on saturation excess provides a good representation of the observed spatially distributed runoff and sediment concentrations within a watershed by modelling the bottom lands (as opposed to the uplands) as the dominant contributor of the runoff and sediment load. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.  相似文献   

Long‐term hydrologic simulation using SCS‐CN‐based improved soil moisture accounting procedure     

Dilip G. Durbude  Manoj K. Jain  Surendra K. Mishra 《水文研究》2011,25(4):561-579

  相似文献   

基于CMIP6模式优化集合平均预估21世纪全球陆地生态系统总初级生产力变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄禄丰  朱再春  黄萌田  赵茜  马伟蕊  曾辉 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):514-524

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中18个地球系统模式总初级生产力(GPP)模拟数据,基于传统的多模式集合平均(MME)和可靠集合平均方法(REA),在4个未来情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下预估了21世纪全球陆地生态系统GPP的变化量,并分析了GPP变化的驱动因子。研究结果表明：在4个未来情景下,基于REA方法预估的全球陆地生态系统年GPP在未来时期(2068—2100年)比历史时期(1982—2014年)分别增长了(14.85±3.32)、(28.43±4.97)、(37.66±7.61)和(45.89±9.21)Pg C,其增量大小和不确定性都明显低于MME方法。在4个情景下,大气CO₂浓度增长对GPP变化的贡献最大,基于REA方法计算的贡献占比分别为140%、137%、115%和75%;除SSP5-8.5(24%)外,其他情景下升温均导致全球陆地生态系统GPP降低(-42%、-37%、-16%),部分抵消了CO₂施肥效应的正面贡献。温度的影响存在纬度差异：升温在低纬度地区对GPP有负向贡献,在中高纬度地区为正向贡献。降水和辐射变化对GPP变化的贡献相对较小。  相似文献   

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions     

Bo FU  Jingyi LI  Thomas GASSER  Philippe CIAIS  Shilong PIAO  Shu TAO  Guofeng SHEN  Yuqin LAI  Luchao HAN  Bengang LI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1217-1228

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement. However, the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’ decision-making process. In this study, we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario (?T = 0.6°C) and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model. Considering reductions in CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BC, and SO₂, the R5OECD (the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990) and R5ASIA (Asian countries) are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation, accounting for 39.3% and 36.8%, respectively. R5LAM (Latin America and the Caribbean) and R5MAF (the Middle East and Africa) followed behind, with contributions of 11.5% and 8.9%, respectively. The remaining 3.5% is attributed to R5REF (the Reforming Economies). Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions, but not the only one. Other greenhouse gases are also important, especially for R5MAF. The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant, notably SO₂ reduction in R5ASIA. We argue that additional species beyond CO₂ need to be considered, including short-lived pollutants, when planning a route to mitigate climate change. It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts, let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target. All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.  相似文献